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Risk & sizing

Risk of ruin

Risk of ruin is the probability that a losing streak wipes out your account before your edge has time to compound — the math most traders never want to run.

Risk of ruin is the probability that random losing streaks reduce your equity to zero (or your minimum-viable threshold) before your strategy's positive expectancy has time to compound.

Even a profitable strategy can ruin you if sized too aggressively. A 60% win-rate, 1.5R average winners strategy sized at 10% per trade has a meaningful (single-digit %) ruin probability over 100 trades despite obviously positive expectancy on paper.

The Kelly criterion gives the mathematically-optimal sizing for a known edge. Most professional traders size at a fraction of Kelly (½-Kelly or ¼-Kelly) to dramatically reduce variance while keeping most of the compounded return — Kelly itself is unforgiving on edge overestimates.

Practical implication: position sizing trumps strategy selection. A great strategy sized too big is dangerous; a mediocre strategy sized conservatively is durable. Most retail accounts blow up from sizing, not from picking the wrong trades.

Not financial advice. This page describes a commonly-used trading concept for educational purposes. It is not a recommendation, does not predict performance, and is not personalized advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.