Risk of Ruin Calculator
How likely are you to blow up your account? Enter your win rate, payoff ratio, and risk per trade — this runs thousands of simulated trade sequences to estimate your odds of ruin. Free, no signup.
"Ruin" = your account hits zero within the trade sequence. Estimated by simulating thousands of fixed-risk runs with these stats.
Your odds
Positive expectancy is necessary but not sufficient: risk too much per trade and you can still blow up before the edge plays out. Lower your risk % to watch ruin fall.
This is only as honest as the win rate and payoff you plug in. Use your actual numbers — not the optimistic ones.
Measure your true edge free →Edge keeps you alive. Sizing decides how long.
Two things drive risk of ruin: your edge (win rate × payoff ratio) and how much you risk per trade. A negative edge means ruin is effectively certain given enough trades — no sizing saves you. But even a solid positive edge can blow up if you bet too big, because a normal losing streak arrives long before the edge compounds.
Try it: hold the win rate and payoff fixed and raise risk-per-trade from 1% to 10%. Watch ruin climb. That single slider is why disciplined traders risk 1–2%.
Use your real edge, not your hoped-for one
This estimate is only as honest as the win rate and payoff ratio you enter — and those are exactly what traders overestimate. Measure them from your actual trade history so your risk-of-ruin number reflects reality. TradeFlow Quantum tracks both automatically. Start a free 7-day trial — no card required →