Trade Expectancy Calculator
Enter your win rate and average win/loss to see whether your approach is net positive per trade — in dollars and in R. Updates as you type. Free, no signup.
Use your real numbers from your last 50–100 trades, not your best week. Expectancy is only honest when the inputs are.
Per-trade expectancy
Positive. On average this setup makes +30per trade — over 100 trades that's roughly +3,000 before costs, assuming the win rate and averages hold.
This calculator answers the question with numbers you type in. Your trade history answers it with numbers that are actually true.
Get your real expectancy free →Win rate is the most overrated stat in trading
A 40% win rate at +2R/−1R prints money. A 70% win rate at +1R/−3R bleeds. Win rate alone tells you almost nothing — it only means something combined with how much you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. That combination is expectancy:
If that number isn't positive over a real sample of trades, no position sizing formula — not Kelly, not fixed-fractional, nothing — turns it into a winning strategy. Fix the expectancy first; size the position second.
Why expectancy in R travels better than expectancy in dollars
A $40 expectancy means nothing without knowing your position size. Dividing expectancy by your average loss converts it to R — a unit that stays comparable across setups, symbols, and account sizes. +0.3R per trade is a specific, portable number you can track over time; +$40 per trade only means something relative to how much you risked to get it.
The honesty problem
This calculator is only as good as the numbers you type in — and most traders don't actually know their real win rate and average win/loss. They remember the big winners and forget the string of small losses that quietly eroded the account. Win rate after 10 trades is noise; after 100 trades it's signal. TradeFlow Quantum computes expectancy from your actual imported trade history, not from memory. Start your 7-day free trial →